Shots on the House

After the chaos of the 2008 presidential primaries, where more than 20 state rushed forward in the calendar in an attempt to gain influence, including two states (Michigan and Florida) which went as far as to violate the rules of the two political parties by holding their elections before Super Tuesday, the Republican Party is seeking to put order back into the nominating process by adopting the “Ohio Plan” - a complex grouping system which creates five, semi-regional classes. States will vote in an order determined by their grouping as follows:

Class 1: This class is most recognizable as the traditional “early states” - those contests which are customarily first, which will all retain

The Ohio Plan, as adopted by the GOP in 2008. Blue states vote first, followed by Orange States. States in Green, Gold, and Purple will rotate each year.

their status as the first contests to be held. As always, the season will begin with the Iowa Caucuses, followed by the New Hampshire Primary. Nevada will come next, and South Carolina will vote as the “first in the South.”

Class 2: The second states to vote will be smaller (meaning less populated) states, containing fewer delegates than those falling later in the cycle. These states are most easily classified into three regions: the Mountain West (Idaho, Montana, N. and S. Dakota, Nebraska, and Wyoming), the East (Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, West Virginia, and Washington D.C.), and those not contiguous to the United States (Hawaii, Alaska, and the territories). New Mexico will also vote in this group, serving as something of an odd-man out.

Class 3(A):The next three classes will alternate each election cycle, going third, fourth, and fifth. The first of these groups is composed of two southern states (Florida and Georgia), and a host of delegate-rich states centered around the Great Lakes. Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York.

Class 3(B):Once again focused on either side of the country, this second of three rotating groups includes California, Arizona, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut.

Class 3(C):To put it simply, everyone else. Washington, Oregon, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Minnesota will round out the states which will vote in rotation at the end of the cycle.

Results of 2008 Republican Primaries. Notice the similarity between the Romney states (yellow), and the early primaries in the Ohio Plan

But how does that help Romney? The answer lies in both the order of groups, and the way states are distributed.  Romney already served to benefit from the absence of a more moderate candidate and the lack of an open contest on the Democratic side, both of which will provide additional voters to the Romney campaign. But the fmr. Governor still might have faced trouble if the 2008 calendar was retained - particularly since 2012 appears to be evolving into a two-man race between Romney and fellow ex-gov. Mike Huckabee.

But that difficulty appears to have all but evaporated with the adoption of the Ohio Plan. As I’ve already mentioned, the season will begin with Iowa, which may or may not favor Huckabee (more on this soon), but then continues to New Hampshire and Nevada. Romney won Nevada by a huge margin in 2008, and holds a similar lead in New Hampshire. Even if he were to lose in South Carolina, Romney would still likely manage a 50/50 split among early states.  That’s enough to establish him as at least one frontrunner, and it only gets better from there.

The first four states may provide for an even split with Mike Huckabee, but the second grouping of states - those colored Orange in the top map - should be a windfall for Romney. The mountain west - including Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota, is a Romney stronghold. Maine also went to Mitt, and states like Idaho and Vermont, which voted after Romney had already dropped out, should be more fertile ground for his campaign than for Mike Huckabee.

Beyond that, its a little more difficult - I have yet to see which order the three rotating groups will vote in, but the idea that Huckabee is on the losing end of the new system still stands. His states, primarily in the south, are divided between four different groups of states, each of which also contains a significant number of Romney states.

Going into the 2012 election cycle, Romney has a significant opportunity to use early victories to establish an aura of inevitability that, as it did for McCain, could take him all the way to the nomination. For Huckabee, such a path may not exist.