Shots on the House

Mike Huckabee is leading in at least somepolls for the 2012 Republican Presidential Primaries. Its quickly becoming common thought that the 2012 contest will be a two man race on the Republican side between Huckabee and Fmr. Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Yet there’s a question more important than any other that doesn’t seem to get asked that often: Is Mike Huckabee even going to run?

That question might, at first, appear to have an Obvious answer: yes. Of course Huckabee is going to run? Why wouldn’t he? He won Iowa in 2008, and currently leads the field in national polling. He has already made trips to Iowa - indicating a run.

Yet I believe the answer is far less obvious. Huckabee leads in national polling, but is doing miserably in New Hampshire - the only early state to see specific polling thus far. His support, though the highest of all Presidential candidates at the current time, is also far from enough to capture the nomination. That support - slightly under 30% - may also be a ceiling. There will be a huge void left in 2012 by the absence of Giuliani and McCain, who, at one point, controlled 67% of GOP support. Unfortunately for Huckabee, both were moderates, focused primarily on national security and the economy - a platform which doesn’t easily merge with Mike’s brand of compassionate conservatism. Huckabee has also trailed severely in fundraising, and as I explained yesterday, the 2012 Primary calendar doesn’t help.

Huckabee also in the best non-political position of all the potential Republican candidates in 2012. A highly-rated Television show has allowed Huckabee to rebuild his image and become a respected voice in American Politics, a position he would likely lose if forced to go back to the campaign trail to talk about his record as Governor - with social positions with alienate Democrats, and economic positions which anger many Republicans.

I wouldn’t rule out another run by Mike Huckabee in 2012 - he is, after all, a politician - but there is no way I’d put money on it.