Shots on the House

I’m quite the optimist, but when it comes to elections and political issues, I tend to be a realist. I infamously said 2006 might not be so bad, and it ended up being just as bad as most realistic pundits predicted. So, with that record of naivety behind me, I’m predicting a very narrow Obama victory. Here’s my map:

If McCain wins Pennsylvania, it’s a lock right? Not so much. While I’m unwilling to cede Ohio or Florida to the Democrats, I think Obama could carry Virginia and his miracle out west, the Colorado-Nevada-New Mexico trifecta. If he does that, in addition to Iowa, he wins by 2, just 2, electoral votes. That would sure as hell make Maine’s second Congressional district (which could split it’s vote off) really interesting. For some contrasting views, Ed Morrissey has McCain winning and Allahpundit, also of Hot Air, has an Obama landslide. I’m not agreeing with either of them. Let’s hope I’m wrong tomorrow night folks.