Shots on the House

Mike Huckabee is leading in at least somepolls for the 2012 Republican Presidential Primaries. Its quickly becoming common thought that the 2012 contest will be a two man race on the Republican side between Huckabee and Fmr. Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Yet there’s a question more important than any other that doesn’t seem to get asked that often: Is Mike Huckabee even going to run?

That question might, at first, appear to have an Obvious answer: yes. Of course Huckabee is going to run? Why wouldn’t he? He won Iowa in 2008, and currently leads the field in national polling. He has already made trips to Iowa - indicating a run.

Yet I believe the answer is far less obvious. Huckabee leads in national polling, but is doing miserably in New Hampshire - the only early state to see specific polling thus far. His support, though the highest of all Presidential candidates at the current time, is also far from enough to capture the nomination. That support - slightly under 30% - may also be a ceiling. There will be a huge void left in 2012 by the absence of Giuliani and McCain, who, at one point, controlled 67% of GOP support. Unfortunately for Huckabee, both were moderates, focused primarily on national security and the economy - a platform which doesn’t easily merge with Mike’s brand of compassionate conservatism. Huckabee has also trailed severely in fundraising, and as I explained yesterday, the 2012 Primary calendar doesn’t help.

Huckabee also in the best non-political position of all the potential Republican candidates in 2012. A highly-rated Television show has allowed Huckabee to rebuild his image and become a respected voice in American Politics, a position he would likely lose if forced to go back to the campaign trail to talk about his record as Governor - with social positions with alienate Democrats, and economic positions which anger many Republicans.

I wouldn’t rule out another run by Mike Huckabee in 2012 - he is, after all, a politician - but there is no way I’d put money on it.

After the chaos of the 2008 presidential primaries, where more than 20 state rushed forward in the calendar in an attempt to gain influence, including two states (Michigan and Florida) which went as far as to violate the rules of the two political parties by holding their elections before Super Tuesday, the Republican Party is seeking to put order back into the nominating process by adopting the “Ohio Plan” - a complex grouping system which creates five, semi-regional classes. States will vote in an order determined by their grouping as follows:

Class 1: This class is most recognizable as the traditional “early states” - those contests which are customarily first, which will all retain

The Ohio Plan, as adopted by the GOP in 2008. Blue states vote first, followed by Orange States. States in Green, Gold, and Purple will rotate each year.

their status as the first contests to be held. As always, the season will begin with the Iowa Caucuses, followed by the New Hampshire Primary. Nevada will come next, and South Carolina will vote as the “first in the South.”

Class 2: The second states to vote will be smaller (meaning less populated) states, containing fewer delegates than those falling later in the cycle. These states are most easily classified into three regions: the Mountain West (Idaho, Montana, N. and S. Dakota, Nebraska, and Wyoming), the East (Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, West Virginia, and Washington D.C.), and those not contiguous to the United States (Hawaii, Alaska, and the territories). New Mexico will also vote in this group, serving as something of an odd-man out.

Class 3(A):The next three classes will alternate each election cycle, going third, fourth, and fifth. The first of these groups is composed of two southern states (Florida and Georgia), and a host of delegate-rich states centered around the Great Lakes. Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York.

Class 3(B):Once again focused on either side of the country, this second of three rotating groups includes California, Arizona, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut.

Class 3(C):To put it simply, everyone else. Washington, Oregon, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Minnesota will round out the states which will vote in rotation at the end of the cycle.

Results of 2008 Republican Primaries. Notice the similarity between the Romney states (yellow), and the early primaries in the Ohio Plan

But how does that help Romney? The answer lies in both the order of groups, and the way states are distributed.  Romney already served to benefit from the absence of a more moderate candidate and the lack of an open contest on the Democratic side, both of which will provide additional voters to the Romney campaign. But the fmr. Governor still might have faced trouble if the 2008 calendar was retained - particularly since 2012 appears to be evolving into a two-man race between Romney and fellow ex-gov. Mike Huckabee.

But that difficulty appears to have all but evaporated with the adoption of the Ohio Plan. As I’ve already mentioned, the season will begin with Iowa, which may or may not favor Huckabee (more on this soon), but then continues to New Hampshire and Nevada. Romney won Nevada by a huge margin in 2008, and holds a similar lead in New Hampshire. Even if he were to lose in South Carolina, Romney would still likely manage a 50/50 split among early states.  That’s enough to establish him as at least one frontrunner, and it only gets better from there.

The first four states may provide for an even split with Mike Huckabee, but the second grouping of states - those colored Orange in the top map - should be a windfall for Romney. The mountain west - including Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota, is a Romney stronghold. Maine also went to Mitt, and states like Idaho and Vermont, which voted after Romney had already dropped out, should be more fertile ground for his campaign than for Mike Huckabee.

Beyond that, its a little more difficult - I have yet to see which order the three rotating groups will vote in, but the idea that Huckabee is on the losing end of the new system still stands. His states, primarily in the south, are divided between four different groups of states, each of which also contains a significant number of Romney states.

Going into the 2012 election cycle, Romney has a significant opportunity to use early victories to establish an aura of inevitability that, as it did for McCain, could take him all the way to the nomination. For Huckabee, such a path may not exist.

Now a few hours removed from election day, we can safely say that it was a good night for the GOP, winning both Governor races in New Jersey and Virginia, maintaining control of the Mayoral position in New York City, and defeating a Gay Marriage Issue in Maine. Only one dark spot - albeit a significant one - can be found on the RNC’s scorecard from election night. Just one year after the election of Obama, it would appear that the country is well on its way to sending the Republican Party back into the majority. Or is it?

I cannot - nor would I try - to minimize the significance of the Republican wins last night, particularly in the Northeast, but I have to offer words of caution to those trying to project last nights results onto the nation as a whole, particularly when trying to use it to boost one candidate or another for national office - most notably the Presidency. Barack Obama’s frequent trips to New Jersey to campaign for Gov. Jon Corzine did little to improve his standing, and few could argue that either Sarah Palin or Tim Pawlenty had much of an effect on the overall result of the NY-23rd election. New Gingrich was unable even to keep the Republican in the race until election day. Nor was Mitt Romney much of a game changer in Virginia, where he actively campaigned and helped to draw large crowds for Bob McDonnell.

In the end, voters saw past the interests of big-name politicos on both sides of the divide, and instead opted to support candidates who would help to solve local problems. Local candidates for local issues in local elections, you could say. Chris Christie won because he promised to help solve problems of corruption and to lower taxes, and Bill Owens won because he was the local candidate, and because he was knowledgeable on the issues most important to voters.

Like it or not, all politics is still local.

According to major news and political outlets, Chris Christie (R) has won the Governorship of New Jersey from incumbent Jon Corzine. This is the first statewide win for Republicans in New Jersey in 16 years.

Election Night Update: Bob McDonnell, the Republican candidate for Governor of Virginia, has been projected as the winner in that contest. McDonnell has led most recent polls, and was expected to win an easy victory. Virginia has a long history of voting against the incumbent Presidency, and voted for Democrats in the last two elections. This is the first victory of the night for the GOP, but it remains to be seen if this will translate into a comeback in Virginia in 2012.